Drawing from recent events, higher education in the coming year is expected to encounter financial challenges, the continued prominence of online learning, skepticism in leadership, the rise of emerging technologies like AI and VR, cybersecurity risks, and a pressing demand for proficient IT personnel.
As we enter 2024, it might be challenging to grasp that four years have passed since the onset of the pandemic. Especially within higher education, the last five years have marked a period of significant disruption and transformative shifts in our professional, personal, and recreational spheres. Technology has been, and will remain, a central force in driving this change, while crucial elements like campus leadership, enrollment expansion, consolidation, and financial resilience are anticipated to wield substantial influence on the future. Presented below are six trends that I foresee higher education encountering this year.
Financial Struggles in IT
Within the realm of IT, there is extensive dialogue about building resilience. In essence, can your institution sustain its service levels during disruptions? Is it capable of maintaining crucial IT systems, networks, and applications? Financial experts are cautioning higher-education institutions about potential threats to financial resilience in a post-pandemic landscape. Factors such as inflation, interest rates, and declining enrollments are anticipated to have adverse effects. In an article by the management consulting firm Bain and Company titled “The Financially Resilient University,” Mark Krafft, Jeff Denneen, Tom Dretler, Pam Yee, and Jeff Selingo express the expectation that the financial stability of colleges and universities will dip below pre-pandemic levels in the next three years. They note that while elite and private institutions are more likely to weather financial challenges, public universities will face significant hurdles, necessitating considerations for cost-cutting and exploring additional funding avenues for sustained operation and survival. These difficulties may impact an institution’s ability to afford and invest in critical IT infrastructure, operations, and staffing.
Digital Education Landscape
The substantial expansion of online learning in higher education during the pandemic is undeniable. According to the National Center for Education Statistics, the proportion of undergraduate students participating in at least one distance-education course surged from 36 percent in 2019 to 75 percent in 2020, slightly receding to 61 percent in 2021. As the pandemic situation stabilized, in-person instruction in higher education gradually returned to its normal state by 2023. However, as highlighted by Emma Hall in an article for The Chronicle of Higher Education, students expressed a desire for online and hybrid learning options to persist, even among traditional-age undergraduates. The challenge for higher education institutions lies in securing the essential technical resources and qualified staff to effectively deliver and sustain these online offerings. In June 2023, McKinsey and Company outlined six criteria for higher-ed institutions to consider when revamping online experiences: scalability, customization, teaching talent, speed to market, adherence to regulations, and investment.
Leadership Challenges
Towards the close of 2023 and the commencement of 2024, several prominent challenges in higher-education leadership garnered national attention. Instances where university presidents were compelled to resign due to comments on antisemitism and allegations of plagiarism, as well as the dismissal of a chancellor over accusations of external pornographic activities, underscore a growing trend of diminishing trust in higher-education leaders. A recent survey by U.S. News and World Report reveals a crisis of faith among Americans, stating that “Americans are experiencing a crisis of faith toward higher-education leaders and do not fully trust them to prioritize their students.” According to the report, nearly 60 percent of Americans believe “university leaders are failing students today,” with 53 percent of current Gen Z and millennials sharing the same sentiment. To reverse this trend, institutions in higher education must earnestly work to rebuild confidence in leadership at all levels, both within their internal and external educational communities.
AI, VR, and AR Advancements
The buzz around artificial intelligence and virtual reality in 2023 remains a prevalent trend that shows no signs of slowing down. AI has evolved into a tool widely utilized across higher education by students, faculty, and IT staff. The next phase of implementation is expected to involve a more profound adoption of AI as an authentic teaching tool. In a recent article titled “What’s Next for Ed Tech in 2024” by Inside Higher Ed, Kadriye Ercikan, Vice President of the Research and Measurement Sciences area at Educational Testing Services, highlighted the early stages of creating a new paradigm for personalized assessment and learning. Ercikan emphasized the critical role of AI in supporting teachers to personalize their teaching by providing individualized feedback and guiding students in their learning journey.
Additionally, virtual and augmented reality form a significant trend not only in higher education but also for students across various educational levels, including preschool, elementary, and high school. These technologies prove beneficial for students with special needs and disabilities. Although challenges may exist in sourcing affordable hardware and application software, Joseph Evanick, an Assistant Professor at Geisinger College of Health Sciences, emphasized in an article for eLearning Industry that these technologies offer immersive and interactive learning experiences, personalized instruction, and access to experiences not feasible in traditional classroom settings.
Cybersecurity Imperatives
The significance of cybersecurity will persist as a paramount concern in the foreseeable future. Higher-education institutions must ensure that their cybersecurity expenditures are both sustainable and potentially increased to fortify defenses against data breaches, ransomware, and malicious malware. Despite fluctuations in the number of ransomware attacks throughout 2023, The Record, a cybersecurity news website, highlighted an overall increase from 2022, cautioning that, “with many takedowns, the targeted groups only experience minor setbacks — over time, they regroup and rebrand themselves, and continue to launch attacks.” Sustained investments in cybersecurity may pose challenges for financially constrained institutions. Tony DiGrazia, a sales manager at the IT company CDW, emphasized in a December statement that universities should “bolster security in areas where a breach would be most costly.” The refrain is clear: Cybersecurity is an ongoing and evolving commitment.
Competency-Oriented Recruitment
Tied to each of the previously mentioned trends is a paramount consideration: the crucial task of recruiting and retaining competent personnel across administrative, faculty, and staff roles. Educause’s compilation of the top 10 issues for 2024, unveiled in October 2023, highlights “hiring resilience” as the seventh item, characterized as the act of “recruiting and retaining IT talent under adverse circumstances.” This challenge is exacerbated by financial constraints and rigid workplace policies, particularly in the aftermath of navigating the intricate post-pandemic landscape. However, beyond the quest for qualified and cost-effective IT staff, competency-oriented hiring extends to securing and retaining seasoned, ethically-driven leadership at the highest administrative echelons in colleges and universities. The absence of robust leadership at the apex, combined with effective management across the academic hierarchy, has the potential to negatively impact each of the identified trends for 2024. In the words of John F. Kennedy, “Leadership and learning are indispensable to each other,” a sentiment particularly pertinent this year and in the times ahead.
